**Autocrats roll back rights and rule of law — and cite Trump’s example
*威权统治者践踏权利与法治——并以特朗普为例

**Trump’s statements, policies and actions are providing cover for attacks on LGBTQ+ rights, freedom of expression and the rule of law around the world.
**特朗普的言论、政策和行动为全球范围内对LGBTQ+权利、言论自由和法治的压制提供了掩护。

Under Hungary’s antigay “propaganda” law, bookstores were fined for selling LGBTQ+ themed tomes without sealed plastic wrappers and a museum director was fired for****允许未成年人进入展示同性伴侣图像的展览。但匈牙利总理维克托·欧尔班的威权政府此前一直未针对LGBTQ+群体的标志性活动——年度Pride骄傲游行。
根据匈牙利的反同”宣传法”，书店因出售未密封包装的LGBTQ+主题书籍被罚款，一名博物馆馆长因允许未成年人参观包含同性伴侣图像的展览遭解雇。但总理维克托·欧尔班的威权政府此前从未直接打压该群体的年度盛事——Pride骄傲游行。

**Until now. Parliament voted overwhelmingly this month to ban the event — and threatened to use facial recognition technology to identify violators.
**但如今形势骤变。匈牙利议会本月以压倒性票数通过禁令，并威胁使用面部识别技术追查违规者。

**What changed? According to Orban, it was the return to the White House of President Donald Trump.
**为何转变？欧尔班称，这是因为唐纳德·特朗普将重返白宫。

**Gergely Gulyas, Orban’s chief of staff, told journalists that the change in administrations in Washington had lifted the “American boot” off the chest of the Hungarian government, making it easier “to breathe.”
**欧尔班办公室主任盖尔盖伊·古利亚什对记者表示，华盛顿政府的更迭使”美国军靴”从匈牙利政府胸口移开，令其得以”喘息”。

**Orban himself noted that the Biden administration’s ambassador to Hungary — David Pressman, a fierce Orban critic who directly challenged the nationalist leader’s democratic backsliding — made a point of participating in Budapest Pride, an event that has brought 35,000 people to the Hungarian capital, to protect it.
**欧尔班本人提到，拜登政府驻匈牙利大使戴维·普雷斯曼（一位强烈批评欧尔班民主倒退的民族主义路线的外交官）曾特意参与布达佩斯Pride游行以示保护——这场活动曾吸引3.5万人齐聚匈牙利首都。

**Pride “shouldn’t have existed earlier, but it did, because the U.S. Ambassador led the march, which clearly showed that the world’s great powers supported it,” Orban said last month. “But now the world has changed, and the Americans have called these types of ambassadors back home. … It’s clear that [Pride] won’t have international protection.”
**欧尔班上月称：”Pride本不该存在，但它存在了，因为美国大使带领游行，这清楚表明世界大国支持它。但现在世界变了，美国人已召回这类大使……显然（Pride）将失去国际保护。”

**The emboldened Orban is not alone. As Trump upends democratic norms at home, his statements, policies and actions are providing cover for a fresh chill on freedom of expression, democracy, the rule of law and LGBTQ+ rights for autocrats around the world — some of whom are giving him credit.
**胆量渐长的欧尔班并非孤例。随着特朗普在国内颠覆民主规范，他的言行正为全球威权统治者压制言论自由、民主、法治和LGBTQ+权利的新一轮寒潮提供掩护——其中一些人将此归功于他。

**Democratic backsliding in Eastern Europe, the Balkans and Turkey long predates Trump; the president has been said to have derived some of his messaging from Orban. But in several nations, including Hungary and Serbia, authorities say openly that Trump’s return has helped them serve up what critics say are fresh violations of basic rights. In Turkey, where President Recep Tayyip Erdogan this week detained his leading political rival and dozens of others, advocates see Trump’s influence as an enabling factor.
**东欧、巴尔干和土耳其的民主倒退远早于特朗普；据称这位总统的部分言论灵感正来自欧尔班。但在匈牙利和塞尔维亚等国，当局公开表示特朗普的回归助其推行被批评者称为侵犯基本权利的新政策。在土耳其，总统埃尔多安本周拘留主要政敌及数十名人士，维权人士认为特朗普的影响是重要推手。

卡内基欧洲中心主任罗莎·鲍尔弗（Rosa Balfour）表示，新一届特朗普政府“正在集结全球的威权统治者和潜在威权者。他们的共同点是激进的右翼议程，其政策与目标之间的关联性远超我们此前的想象。”
“The new Trump administration ‘is bringing together autocrats and would-be autocrats around the world,’ said Rosa Balfour, director of Carnegie Europe. ‘What they share is a radical right agenda, and they are much more connected in their policies and goals than we have been assuming.’”

她指出，美国国际开发署（USAID）的预算削减导致许多在民主受攻击国家推动法治的非政府组织失去资金支持。与此同时，特朗普政府在国内的举措——撤销少数群体保护政策、绕过正常程序大规模驱逐移民、攻击阻碍其议程的法官——以及其投票反对联合国谴责俄罗斯入侵乌克兰的决议，都标志着美国不再被视为自由民主全球捍卫者的新时代。
“Cuts at USAID have eliminated funding for nongovernmental organizations that promoted the rule of law in countries where democracy is under attack, she said. Meanwhile, the administration’s actions at home — rolling back protections for minorities, the mass deportation of migrants outside normal processes, attacks on judges who stand in the way — and its decision to vote against a United Nations censure of Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, she said, signal a new era in which the United States is no longer seen as a global defender of liberal democracy.”

对欧尔班而言，反对者担忧禁止Pride游行只是开端。上周，他宣布针对反对派政客、法官、记者、公民社会组织及活动人士展开“春季大扫除”，并将这群人统称为社会的“臭虫”。
“For Orban, opponents fear, the ban on Pride is only the starting point. Last week, he announced a ‘spring cleaning’ against opposition politicians, judges, journalists, civil society organizations and activists — a group he collectively described as society’s ‘stink bugs.’”

反对党“ Momentum运动”主席陶尔波斯·马尔通（Márton Tompos）表示：“在国际压力层面，欧尔班如今已无束缚。这就像他在说：‘好了，特朗普赢了，现在我可以为所欲为。’”
“‘In terms of international pressure, Orban is now liberated,’ said Márton Tompos, president of the opposition Momentum Movement. ‘It’s like he’s saying, “Okay, Trump won, and now I can do anything I want.’”

在塞尔维亚，威权总统亚历山大·武契奇（Aleksandar Vucic）长期面临持续性抗议运动的挑战。当局援引特朗普关于美国国际开发署存在“猖獗欺诈、腐败与浪费”的未经证实指控，作为上个月突袭四家公民社会组织的依据，其中包括监督选举和推动政府问责透明的机构。
“In Serbia, where autocratic President Aleksandar Vucic has been challenged by a sustained protest movement, authorities cited Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of rampant fraud, corruption and waste at USAID as a basis for launching raids last month against four civil society groups, including one that monitors elections and one that promotes government accountability and transparency.”

总部位于佛罗里达的波因特研究所下属“国际事实核查网络”称，此次突袭是“政府镇压的空前升级，旨在压制独立声音，并以本届美国政府毫无根据的指控为幌子打压独立媒体”。
“The International Fact-Checking Network, a program of the Florida-based Poynter Institute, called the raids ‘an unprecedented escalation of government repression, meant to silence independent voices and using the pretext of baseless accusations from the current U.S. administration for the suppression of independent media.’”

本月，小唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump Jr.）采访武契奇时称赞塞尔维亚“拥抱MAGA运动”，并附和武契奇关于反腐抗议与美国“左翼势力”有关的未经证实的说法。
“Donald Trump Jr., interviewing Vucic this month, praised Serbia for ‘embracing the MAGA movement,’ and echoed Vucic’s unproven claim that anti-corruption protests were tied to ‘left-wing actors’ in the U.S.”

埃尔多安多年来持续打压政敌、法官与记者。但本月以腐败罪名拘留近100人（包括其最强政治对手、伊斯坦布尔市长埃克雷姆·伊马莫格鲁）的举动被视作局势的重大升级。周日，土耳其法院正式宣布逮捕伊马莫格鲁，称其将在审判前被监禁。
“Erdogan has targeted political rivals, judges and journalists for years. But the detention this month of nearly 100 people, including Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, his strongest political challenger, on corruption charges opponents call specious, was seen as a major escalation. On Sunday, a Turkish court formally declared Imamoglu under arrest, saying he would be imprisoned pending trial.”

批评者称，埃尔多安还在为新一轮侵害少数群体权利铺路。土耳其LGBTQ+组织Kaos GL的人权项目协调员克雷姆·迪克门（Kerem Dikmen）表示，该组织已获取一项法案草案，其中规定对在公共场合行为不符合生理性别者最高判处三年监禁。迪克门称，法案还将主持同性婚礼定为犯罪。
“Erdogan, critics say, is also laying the ground work for a fresh assault on minority rights. Kerem Dikmen, a Human Rights Program Coordinator at Kaos GL, a Turkish LGBTQ+ group, said the organization has obtained a draft of a bill that would impose sentences of up to three years on individuals who do not behave in public according to their biological sex. It would also make it a crime to officiate same-sex weddings, Dikmen said.”

此类打压并非新事。自2015年起，伊斯坦布尔Pride游行即遭禁止，埃尔多安也自称“反对LGBT”。迪克门表示：“土耳其的立法并非因为特朗普掌权，但存在心理层面的影响。未来压制将变得更容易。”
“The target isn’t new. Istanbul’s Pride march has been banned since 2015, and Erdogan has described himself as ‘against LGBT.’ ‘Those in Turkey are not passing a law because Trump is in power. But there is a psychological influence,’ Dikmen said. ‘It will become easier.’”

拜登政府曾与欧尔班激烈对抗——这位特朗普与俄罗斯总统普京的共同盟友试图在匈牙利建立其所谓的”非自由国家”。自15年前掌权以来，欧尔班持续削弱司法独立性、控制媒体，并针对移民和LGBTQ+群体。
“The Biden administration clashed bitterly with Orban, an ally of both Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has sought to establish what he calls an ‘illiberal state’ in Hungary. Since coming to power 15 years ago, Orban has undermined judicial independence and sought to control the media while targeting migrants and the LGBTQ+ community.”

2021****年通过的反同”宣传法”加剧了匈牙利LGBTQ+社群的恐惧。2023年，立法者进一步提出允许公民匿名举报养育子女的同性伴侣的提案。
“The 2021 antigay propaganda law stoked fear in Hungary’s LGBTQ+ community. Lawmakers followed it in 2023 with a proposal to allow citizens to report same-sex couples with children anonymously.”

但该法案最终未获签署——前驻匈大使普雷斯曼向《华盛顿邮报》透露，这是美欧官员公开与私下施压的结果。拜登政府卸任前数周，美国还以涉嫌腐败为由制裁了欧尔班的一名高级助手。
“That bill, however, was never signed — the result, Pressman told The Washington Post, of public and private pressure by U.S. and European officials. In the final weeks of the Biden administration, the U.S. also sanctioned a top Orban aide for alleged corruption in office.”

已于今年1月离任的普雷斯曼表示：”面对一个崛起的威权政府，外交工作的部分努力就是建立制约机制。当前真正的问题是——这些机制是否依然存在？而你们看到的部分政策决定，正反映了答案。”
“‘Look, when you’re dealing with an emerging authoritarian government, part of the effort of diplomacy is to create guardrails,’ said Pressman, who left his post as ambassador in January. ‘I think there is a very fair question as to whether or not those guardrails still exist. And some of the policy decisions you see, I think, are reflecting that.’”

批评者指出，Pride禁令的影响远超单次活动。该法允许政府对任何被认定”危害儿童”的抗议或集会处以最高约550美元罚款。
“The ban on Pride affects far more than one event, critics say. It allows fines of up to roughly $550 for any protest or gathering authorities deem a danger to children.”

经济疲软、高通胀与民调下滑的多重危机，使欧尔班面临前盟友彼得·马扎尔（Péter Magyar）的强势挑战。布达佩斯Pride组织者认为，针对LGBTQ+社群的打压升级部分是为了转移矛盾。
“A convergence of challenges — an anemic economy, high inflation and flagging poll numbers — have left Orban vulnerable to a surging challenge by former ally Péter Magyar. Organizers of Budapest Pride see the renewed harassment of the LGBTQ+ community in part as an effort to direct attention toward a scapegoat.”

欧尔班称Pride参与者不会被逮捕但将面临罚款。布达佩斯Pride发言人赫格多斯·马特（Mate Hegedus）表示，6月28日的游行将按计划举行。巧合的是，当日恰逢1969年纽约石墙事件周年纪念——这场格林威治村起义推动了美国现代同性恋权利运动。
“Orban said Pride participants would not be arrested but fined. Mate Hegedus, a spokesman for Budapest Pride, said the June 28 event will go ahead as planned. By happenstance, he said, it will coincide with the anniversary of the Stonewall riots, the Greenwich Village uprising in 1969 that gave lift to the modern gay rights movement in the U.S.”

赫格多斯表示：”此例一开，任何人都可能被消音。但我们不会屈服，活动必将继续。”
“‘After this, anyone can be silenced,’ Hegedus said. ‘We’re not going to stand for this. We will go on with the event.’”

欧尔班誓言将镇压网络扩大至法官、记者、非政府组织等群体的表态也引发震动。匈牙利国际特赦组织执行主任戴维·维格（David Vig）指出，欧尔班过去也曾打压反对者，但特朗普削减美国国际开发署资金等举措，似乎成为”语调显著转向”的”导火索”。
“Orban’s vows to expand his net to include judges, journalists, NGOs and others have also rattled the country. Orban has acted against opponents in the past, said David Vig, executive director of Amnesty International in Hungary. But Trump’s action against USAID, he said, seemed to serve as a ‘trigger’ for a ‘very significant change in tone.’”

维格表示：”总理宣称要在复活节前’清除’这些组织，而污名化与寒蝉效应已然显现。当一国领导人将公民社会、记者和法官称为’需要消灭的害虫’，这无疑释放出令人胆寒的信号。”
“‘The prime minister has said he wants to wipe out these organizations by Easter [and] the smearing, the chilling effect is already there,’ Vig said. ‘If a prime minister is talking about civil society, talking about journalists, and judges, as bugs who need to be killed and wiped out, I think that is sending a very clear chilling message.’”

_Karoly Szilagyi in Budapest and Stefano Pitrelli in Rome contributed to this report.
_****布达佩斯记者卡洛伊·西拉吉（Karoly Szilagyi）与罗马记者斯特凡诺·皮特雷利（Stefano Pitrelli）对本文有贡献。